GasBuddy has released its 2026 Independence Day gas price forecast, projecting the national average price of gas will fall to approximately $3.75 per gallon on July 4 – making it the second most expensive Independence Day on record behind the all-time high nationwide average of $4.80 on July 4, 2022.

The projection comes despite six consecutive weeks of national average declines following a spring spike driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure.

“Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but the context matters,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. Drivers should use every tool available to find the lowest prices near them before filling up.”

While the projected $3.75 per gallon average represents a dramatic improvement from May’s peak of $4.57, it still marks roughly a 65-cent increase from last July 4’s $3.10 per gallon average, and a stark reminder of how significantly the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped the price environment for 2026. Americans will spend hundreds of millions more on gasoline this July 4 holiday weekend compared to last year. Only 2022’s record spike, driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-era demand surges, has produced a more expensive Independence Day at the pump.

Meanwhile, average gasoline prices in Modesto have fallen 28.4 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $5.20/gallon as of June 29, according to GasBuddy’s survey of 201 stations in Modesto. Prices in Modesto are 66.9 cents per gallon lower than a month ago and stand 96.0 cents per gallon higher than a year ago.

According to GasBuddy price reports, the cheapest station in Modesto was priced at $4.69/gallon while the most expensive was $5.89, a difference of $1.20/gallon. The lowest price in the state was $3.49 while the highest was $9.99, a difference of $6.50/gallon.

The national average price of gasoline has fallen 6.9 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $3.78/gallon on June 29. The national average is down 55.6 cents per gallon from a month ago and stands 64.2 cents per gallon higher than a year ago, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million weekly price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.